Quick pulse for Sunday, October 11. Short takes, with credit to where each one came from.

Nvidia may buy Reflection AI#

The Financial Times reported on Saturday that Nvidia is in early talks to deepen its investment in Reflection AI, or buy it. One option is an acqui-hire: Nvidia hires staff and licenses the technology instead of doing a full acquisition, which could skip a long regulatory review. Nvidia has already put in $800 million. Reflection launched its first open-weight model, Beam, on Monday. Talks could still fall apart. (Reuters via MWC syndication)

InvestAnswers reads it as a sovereign-AI move: a US open model that runs best on Nvidia chips.

InvestAnswers: SpaceX wants to be a phone carrier#

InvestAnswers lists this week’s signs that SpaceX is moving into telecom:

  • A purchase of 800 MHz low-band spectrum.
  • FCC approval for 15,000 direct-to-cell satellites.
  • An FCC waiver to serve phones without a carrier lease.
  • FAA approval for 1,000 launches a year.

His math: the US cell market is about $264B a year. At a 10x multiple that is $2.64T, which he argues the stock does not price in. Separately, he says phone carriers lost billions in market value in a few days on the news.

InvestAnswers: Cybercab and Anthropic#

  • Cybercab ramp. Tesla’s Cybercab count went from 37 to 300 in about a month. The base is small. If it only doubles monthly, he projects about 2,000 in Austin by Christmas.
  • Anthropic. He says revenue growth has been flat since July, which makes a roughly $2T IPO valuation hard to justify. That is his claim, not a company figure.
  • Open-weight pricing. He points to token usage up about 7x since January while spending is up about 5.5x. His take: bad for model makers, fine for the companies that own the infrastructure.

Wall Street on Palantir#

Barclays started coverage of Palantir with an Overweight rating and a $265 price target, and of SpaceX with a $254 target. (Gurufocus) InvestAnswers’ year-to-date scorecard shows MU up 262%, MRVL up 221%, AMD up 185% and ALAB up 105%. By his numbers, Tesla and crypto lag.

Why China still can’t get an EUV machine#

Superintel’s deep dive: ASML sold 284 EUV systems between 2019 and 2025 and says none went to China. SMIC ordered one in 2018 for about $150 million, and the export licence expired unused in 2019. China’s most advanced AI chips are already made with older tools, so the restrictions bite less than people assume. ASML reports third-quarter results on October 14. (Superintel)

Unikernels were hard. Were.#

Geoffrey Huntley argues AI removed the friction that kept unikernels niche. An agent can port a missing library, like a Stripe client from Go to OCaml, when the original tool serves as a reference to test against. His security pitch: stop hardening a hackable operating system and shrink the attack surface instead. He says he built a distributed unikernel OS in a week. (Geoffrey Huntley)

On the calendar#

InvestAnswers hosts an open conversation with Jo Bhakdi on Thursday, October 15, at 10am PT.

-Q